First Solar: The 232 Setup May Not Shine as Bright

Research evidence excerpt

First Solar: The 232 Setup May Not Shine as Bright

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midpt. of guide. Ramping finishing lines in 2H26 will likely drive inflection in volumes, but still fall

short of expectations on a consolidated level. 2Q focus will likely remain on (1) Volume activity while

S232 uncertainty remains, (2) Impact of steel/aluminum S232 on legacy backlog, (3) ASPs, now Exhibit 1 - FSLR trading at a discount vs. its

including CuRe adders and (4) Potential use of cash. historical average YTD

FSLR vs NXT/SHLS/ARRY EV/EBITDA CY3

FSLR management continues to employ a patient approach in booking modules, with the goal of -10.0%0.0%

inking higher ASP contracts post S232 outcome. The real tension will be whether the Street remains -20.0%-30.0%-40.0%

-50.0%

shares have tradedconstructive if we still do not have a S232 outcome by the 2Q call. Simultaneously, S232 on steel/ -60.0% YTDhistorical avg. against NXT/SHLS/ARRY -70.0% Dumoulin-Smith * | Equity Analystaluminum appears cautious, with potential to render existing orders less economical and even drive de- Julien at a deeper discount vs.

Prem/(Disc.)| jds@jefferies.comMedian Stdev. +1 Stdev. -1bookings. +1. (281) 774-2066

DushyantSource: JEF Research,Ailani, CFAFactSet* | Equity Analyst

S232: Key Near-Term Event To Watch. S232 on poly has remained the central thesis for FSLR 1 (212) 778-8318 | dailani@jefferies.com

bulls and we see a wide dispersion of investor expectations, and potential for a disappointing Paul Zimbardo * | Equity Analyst

outcome. Our conversations imply investor expectations as high as well into $0.40/w range, but our +1 (212) 778-8497 | pzimbardo@jefferies.com

channel checks point to more muted outcomes. More importantly, we see limited concerns among Jamieson Ward, CFA * | Equity Analyst