2Q26 Results Weak As Expected

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Results Weak As Expected

Update

July 21, 2026 06:51 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MFortum Oyj | Europe Robert Pulleyn

Equity Analyst and Commodity Strategist

2Q26 Results Weak As Robert.Pulleyn@morganstanley.comArthur Descazeaud +44 20 7425-4388

Research Associate

Arthur.Descazeaud1@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1282

Expected Morgan Stanley Europe S.E., Paris Branch+

Arthur Sitbon, CFA

Equity Analyst

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction Arthur.Sitbon@morganstanley.com +33 1 42 90 71-03

Unchanged Meaningful shortfall Modest revision lower

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS Sarah E Lester, CFA

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Sarah.Lester@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0551

Marina Fuentes Juan

Key Takeaways Research Associate

Marina.Fuentes.Juan@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2268

We expect a negative market reaction to 2Q results given 27% miss vs consensus

at EPS Fortum Oyj (FORTUM.HE, FORTUM FH)

Utilities | Finland

This may soften 2026 consensus EPS as forecasts are updated

Stock Rating Equal-weight

However, we note that poor hydrology and nuclear outages should be well Industry View Attractive

Price target €23.00

known and a weak quarter expected. Shr price, close (Jul 20, 2026) €19.86

52-Week Range €22.92-14.40

Furthermore, the stock has underperformed the sector since early June and is Mkt cap, curr (mn) €17,820

down 12% since early April recent highs.

We do not expect the 2Q print or near-term EPS revisions to materially change

the equity story resting on Nordics data centre optionality.

2Q Results weaker than expected: 2Q EBIT of €106m was 13% below Vara Cons at

€122m (BBG €150m, MSe €109m) with poor hydrology conditions being well