EU / Japan semis: Hybrid Bonding – Bullish logic adoption despite HBM uncertainties; Raising Besi PT to €310

Research evidence excerpt

EU / Japan semis: Hybrid Bonding – Bullish logic adoption despite HBM uncertainties; Raising Besi PT to €310

21 July 2026

EU Semiconductors

EU / Japan semis: Hybrid Bonding — Bullish logic adoption despite

HBM uncertainties; Raising Besi PT to €310

Bonding technologies are essential to enable advanced packaging, and hybrid bonding David Dai, CFA

+852 2918 5704 (HB) is the ultimate bonding technology, as explained in our reports (The Bonder War: Part

david.dai@bernsteinsg.com 1 — HBM, Part 2 and Bonder Primer). This report provides our latest view of the current

bonding market as well as an update to our TAM forecast.

Juho Hwang

+81 3 6777 6980 We see a clear trend for logic to adopt die-to-wafer (D2W) hybrid bonding to increase juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com

interconnection speed among logic chiplets and between logic and memory. For logic, we

Carmine Milano, CFA forecast 2028 HB TAM of $887mn, and 2028 shipment of 237 units (103 prior), to reflect

+44 20 7762 1857 our outlook of stronger adoption at TSMC for SoIC packaging. We expect TSMC’s SoIC

carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com capacity to grow 8x from 10kwpm in 2025 to 85kwpm in 2028, for AMD, Apple, Google,

and Nvidia applications. Intel is also expected to resume HB capacity expansion from 2027,

with the ramp up of Clearwater Forest and Diamond Rapids.

HBM adoption timing is less clear. Samsung may adopt HB in HBM4E (16-hi) in 2027,

but if HBM4E turns out to be 12-hi only per Korean media, HB adoption is possibly

postponed to 2028 with HBM5, with few (maybe 1) initial layers only while the remaining

stays on TCB. For HBM, we forecast 2028 HB TAM of $489mn, and 2028 shipment of

130 units, based on our view that some portion of HBM4E will adopt hybrid, and HBM5 will

migrate to hybrid bonding.

Raising HB TAM forecast.