2Q26E: Robust growth drives guidance upgrades

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26E: Robust growth drives guidance upgrades

IdeaMto the private sector at 4.74% increased by 6bp QoQ, driven by NFC and consumer,

while standing 10bp above back-book loan yields. Notably, corporate loan margins

(FB yield - 3M EURIBOR) remained flat QoQ, which is one of the points of concern

for the market, while mortgage margins (FB yield - 1M EURIBOR) continue the

decline with -24bp QoQ to 1.27%, down from 1.55% in 4Q25. Yet the relative small

size of mortgages on balance sheet and the massive past disposal allow this trend

to dent NIM only marginally. Average back-book yield to the private sector at 4.63%

increased by 3bp QoQ, driven by NFC and consumer.

Deposits: corporate drives beta up. Deposits are up by 2.3% in May vs. March and

7.9% YoY, which might be affected by the completion of the >€4bn capital increase

at PCC, hence we would not extrapolate. Term deposits increased to 23% of total up

from 22% in 1Q26. Average back-book deposit rates increased to 32bp up from

30bp, on the back of higher sight corporate deposit rates.

Fees: solid quarter. we expect lending fees to be strong in Q2, reflecting new

production. Asset management fees could be supported by MtM (up 4-7% QoQ on

average volumes), while net inflows were lower in Q2 vs Q1, except for Alpha AM.

We envisage investment banking fees to be particularly high, given 2Q activity in

Greece, especially for Alpha and Eurobank.

Katseli law: Moody’s report breaks down the €700m total cost for the four

systemic banks estimated by the government: €500m in foregone future interest on

a €16.5bn restructured mortgage book over 20 years, which will be borne by HAPS

holders, plus €200m in retrospective interest refunds, which splits roughly evenly

between banks and servicers (Innnewspaper, 29 June 2026).