日本 | 化粧品・トイレタリー

Research evidence excerpt

日本 | 化粧品・トイレタリー

Japan | Cosmetics, Household & Personal

Care EquityJulyResearch21, 2026

Exhibit 1 - Shiseido (4911) Core OP in FY24-Q1 April-June Quarter Outlook Summary

FY26

160 We prefer Kao, Pigeon, Milbon, and Shiseido for upside from consensus. We 100mn JPY 144 130

140 151

80 30 do not recommend Lion due to uncertainty of costs pressures.

100 113

60 79 81 89 83

Key Points to Watch in the April–June Earnings Reports: 40 67

To what extent can companies mitigate the pressure on sales and costs resulting from 0 24/Q1 25/Q1 26/Q1

changes in the geopolitical landscape? Core OP Above Plan

.

Source: Company data

In the comparison table, companies such as Kao have not yet disclosed specific figures

regarding the impact. Exhibit 2 - Kao(4452) GPM and material cost

impact YoY mn

4000% We believe the key factors will be whether a company holds a high market share in a given 40 % R² = 0.4900

business segment or has already consolidated its SKU count, rather than its proportion of 3938 3000

37 overseas sales. If a company holds a high market share, suppliers will need to negotiate, 2000

36 1000

which should increase its buying power. On the other hand, companies focused on domestic 35 0

operations with a large number of SKUs sourced from many suppliers may be at a 3433 -1000

32 disadvantage, even with a weak yen. Lion, Kobayashi Pharmaceutical, and many small- and -2000

31 -3000

medium-sized consumer goods companies are unlikely to dispel concerns regarding raw 30 -4000prohibited. material procurement.

is Material cost yoy Kao GPM Linear (Kao GPM)

A comparison of past fluctuations in raw material prices and gross profit margins at Kao, .Source: Company data, Jefferies estimates

Unicharm, and Lion suggest that Kao and Unicharm are evolving toward a structure that is less