U.S. Semiconductors: Intel, AMD: The light of day? Q226 preview

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Semiconductors: Intel, AMD: The light of day? Q226 preview

Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D. +1 213 559 5917 stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com 21 July 2026

• We believe client outlook is likely to leave something to be desired given current memory dynamics, market share trends

(Exhibit 16, Exhibit 17 ) recent channel behavior (Exhibit 18, Exhibit 19). However, stronger server and strengthened IFS

narrative may help to offset things, though this will probably come with increased capex outlook (potentially weighing on FCF

and margins as they dial up required investments). In theory a sizeable capex increase “should” be good (CEO Lip-Bu Tan has

indicated many times that he will not invest without solid customer outlook) but we have seen a number of prints this quarter

spoiled by such things so we shall see.

• Nevertheless, we admit to feeling better about the company than we have in some time as both the market (agentic CPU) and

narrative (potential yield progress, foundry datapoints, Trump’s largesse etc) grow more supportive, though fundamentals

(share trajectory, PC outlook etc) overall still remain somewhat on the challenging side for us.

• We rate Intel Market Perform with a $100 price target.

Key issues to monitor on the call include:

• What are PC expectations now given potential impact from higher memory prices (or anything else?) How much

demand destruction could we have? Have CPU channel issues normalized?

• What are your expectations for PC shipments this year? Have they worsened over the last quarter?

• What is going on regarding servers? How do you see growth this year now? Impact of units vs pricing? How do you see

sustainability of growth from here?

• How much incremental capacity for servers are you planning to add? Is the recent Ireland investment targeted here?