US Life: Too Much, Too Quickly? Observations Ahead of 2Q:26 Earnings

Research evidence excerpt

US Life: Too Much, Too Quickly? Observations Ahead of 2Q:26 Earnings

USA | Life Insurance EquityJulyResearch20, 2026

KEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:US Life: Too Much, Too Quickly?; Observations

TICKER RATING PRICE TARGETAhead of 2Q:26 Earnings

EQH BUY $66.00

We still recommend investors prioritize annuity stocks in 2H:26. Post their ~14% MET BUY $103.00

3Q:26 QTD rally, some have asked if they've moved "too much, too quickly". PFG HOLD $98.00

Acknowledging sector rotation likely helped of late, Buy-rated LNC, CRBG / EQH PRU HOLD $110.00

and JXN remain some of our best value ideas for 2H:26. The P/E catalyst is

greater appreciation of the shift to spread-based annuities with higher risk-

adjusted ROEs. Spread-lenders have 10-11x P/Es vs 5-6x for annuity writers.

Too much, too quickly?: In 1H:26, annuity writers were down 9%. Thus far in 3Q:26, these stocks

are +14%. Some have asked if the group has moved "too much, too quickly". We see more upside

on the ongoing favorable macro environment, including reduced concerns over private credit. We

continue to argue that as the annuity industry pivots from fee-based Traditional VA to spread-based

FA / FIA / RILA, it should: 1) see stronger risk adjusted ROEs and 2) be increasingly comped to other

spread lenders, such as regional banks, which trade at P/Es of 10-11x.

Updated JEF vs. Consensus: For 2Q:26, we are most above for PRU at +4%, reflecting its pre-

announcements on VII and its AAR, EQH at +2%, on AB AUM growth and markets and PFG at +2%,

on markets and potentially encaje. We are most below for JXN at (6%) and VOYA at (5%), both likely

due to VII. Given stocks did not sell off on negative VII pre-announcements, we feel the market may

be looking through a weak 2Q:26 result and potentially at stronger 2H:26 performance.