Japan Semis Earnings Preview (2Q CY26): Materializing the price hike upside

Research evidence excerpt

Japan Semis Earnings Preview (2Q CY26): Materializing the price hike upside

21 July 2026

Japan Semiconductors

Japan Semis Earnings Preview (2Q CY26): Materializing the price

hike upside

We preview the upcoming 2Q CY26 quarterly results season for Japanese semiconductor David Dai, CFA

+852 2918 5704 companies based on a set of data sources that we track and proprietary methods to derive

david.dai@bernsteinsg.com the expected results. The data pack is available upon request.

Juho Hwang Share prices have come down, but expectations have not. Our coverage of Japan

+81 3 6777 6980 Semi/Equipment pulled back ~20% from the recent peak but are still up 77% YTD and now juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com

trades at 35x average P/E. However, 1. sell-side EPS is stale and the buy-side P/E is likely

Jack Lin much lower, 2. EPS is likely to grow steeply in the next 2-3 years, as confirmed by ASML

+852 2123 2683 and TSMC’s earnings on the strong capex and capacity expansion. When market sentiment

jack.lin@bernsteinsg.com comes back, these assets are likely deemed cheap again. Having said that, for the earning

to work, the companies must guide well to meet the heightened expectations, which did not

Carmine Milano, CFA come down with share prices. +44 20 7762 1857

carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com

For equipment companies, WFE growth and pricing/margin expansion are two

major focuses. WFE is clearly strong towards 2028, as suggested by ASML and TSMC

guidance, and investors still like front end equipment companies first before shifting to

back end though both would benefit. 2027/28 WFE for buyside expectations are already

$200/250bn, respectively, so the upside is more on margins and idiosyncrasy. TEL, Screen

and Kokusai all have potential to raise equipment prices given the yen depreciation,