2Q26: Model Updated; Reiterate Buy

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26: Model Updated; Reiterate Buy

ery, with mgmt not ruling out further charges if markets remain weak.

Already pricing a discount. Our buy thesis remains focused on Construction upgrades, as

we see a weak Property outlook well priced at current levels. Putting Construction on a

conservative 6.5x EBIT multiple plus SEK 10b adj. net cash, gives ~SEK 60b of value. On a

market cap of SEK 107b, ~SEK 60b of capital employed in Property sits a ~20% discount to

book, or a 60% discount for the US alone. On this basis, Skanska shares already price a material

haircut to current book, while we see upside potential for Construction earnings as US margins

move higher on civils projects in the backlog, and Swedish non-resi sees growing demand for

data center projects.

Expectations for H2. Order intake should remain strong through H2, with structural growth

themes in social infrastructure still intact across core markets. The US should remain a driver

of margin expansion for the group, while we look out for positive signals in the Nordics

reflecting the upgraded outlook for non resi in Sweden and Finland. In Resi we have lowered

our sales and gross margin estimates, expecting only a modest tick up in Q4 with normal

seasonality. We leave our Commercial estimates broadly unchanged and update to our SOTP

to reflect a softer outlook for Nordic Resi.

Updating estimates; Reiterate Buy. Updating for latest book values and roll forward, our PT

increases to SEK 305. Skanska currently trades on ~13x ’27e EPS, ~7x EBITDA, and ~1.6x P/B.

Graham Hunt, CFA * | Equity Analyst

44 (0)20 7548 4251 | ghunt@jefferies.com

Glynis Johnson * | Equity Analyst

44 (0) 20 7029 8677 | glynis.johnson@jefferies.com

FY (Dec) 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E Priyal Woolf * | Equity Analyst