Mexico Consumer: 2Q26 Preview: Another Weak Quarter, Stay Selective

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Mexico Consumer: 2Q26 Preview: Another Weak Quarter, Stay Selective

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20 Jul 2026 18:00:00 ET │ 33 pages

Mexico Consumer

2Q26 Preview: Another Weak Quarter, Stay Selective

CITI'S TAKE

Renata Cabral AC

We expect another quarter where margin execution, rather than revenue +55-11-4009-7561

growth, determines the winners. While median revenue growth across our renata.cabral@citi.com

coverage is just 1%, below inflation, median EBITDA growth should reach

3%, highlighting that productivity, rather than demand, is driving earnings. Luis Felipe Terzariol

Only three companies: Coca-Cola FEMSA, Kimberly-Clark de México and +55-11-4009-3564

Bimbo, are expected to expand EBITDA margins by more than 90bps, luis.terzariol@citi.com

clearly separating themselves from the rest of the sector. These names

should deliver 4–11% EBITDA growth alongside 90–140bps of margin

expansion, reflecting disciplined pricing and continued productivity gains

despite sluggish demand. In contrast, Walmex should report another

quarter of disappointing operating leverage, as weak traffic and

discretionary spending continue to weigh on profitability. Overall, we

believe 2Q26 will reinforce that execution, rather than a recovery in

consumer demand, remains the primary driver of earnings across the

Mexican Consumer sector.

Margin Leaders Continue to Separate Themselves. Companies delivering

meaningful profitability expansion remain scarce this quarter. We forecast

Kimberly-Clark de México to report 3% revenue growth, 7% EBITDA growth and

119bps of EBITDA margin expansion, one of the strongest profitability improvements

in our coverage despite modest top-line growth. Coca-Cola FEMSA should combine

3% revenue growth with 11% EBITDA growth and 137bps of margin expansion. Bimbo