Ryanair Holdings Plc (RYA.I): New Numbers, Same Pitch. Buybacks To Come Back Into Focus Post Softer Summer

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Ryanair Holdings Plc (RYA.I): New Numbers, Same Pitch. Buybacks To Come Back Into Focus Post Softer Summer

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20 Jul 2026 11:30:00 ET │ 15 pages

Ryanair Holdings Plc (RYA.I)

New Numbers, Same Pitch. Buybacks To Come Back Into Focus Post

Softer Summer

CITI'S TAKE Buy

Price (20 Jul 26 12:24) €24.38 We cut Ryanair numbers for FY27-28 as a softer fares and slightly higher

Target price €31.50↓ fuel costs in the near term offset better underlying cost control. With the

shares -15% ytd and fare expectations reset into late summer and early from €32.20

winter, we see FY27 as somewhat de-risked. There remains uncertainty to Expected share price return 29.2%

numbers in FY28 as hedges roll off if current jet fuel spot persists, though Expected dividend yield 2.1%

should this materialise the company is well placed to accelerate returns Expected total return 31.3%

into any share price weakness that accompanies it. While the current Market Cap €25,362M

priority remains building cash, we expect buybacks to recommence in

US$29,006M early calendar 2027. Our base case has cash returns averaging 4.2% of

market cap pa for FY27-31, 21% cumulatively. But as management has

expressed a willingness to partly finance Max-10s with debt, even were

leverage to rise to zero net debt (still the lowest in our coverage), this could Conor DwyerAC

comfortably rise to 35-40%. +44-20-7986-2824

conor.dwyer@citi.com

Focus to shift back to buybacks by end of year, we think company could

comfortably return c35-40% of current market cap over 5 years — Management

has made it clear the current focus is building cash toward €4bn next year

(importantly this is gross cash, with management willing to partly finance capex with

debt moving forward), indicating on today's call that the next buyback is likely to