1Q26 Recap: Better than Feared Commentary Supportive of 2026 Expectations

Research evidence excerpt

1Q26 Recap: Better than Feared Commentary Supportive of 2026 Expectations

olid, sack (bags) seen *Rev. (MM)

better, while speciality kraft still muted. Liquid Packaging Board (LPB) strong YTD while folding

carton (FBB) is weak. With price hikes achieved, BILL expects 1–2% QoQ price/mix. Costs

3Q26 outlook - Supports EBITDAshould see a SEK40m tailwind from lower wood and energy, partly offset by higher chems.

expectations: BILL sees positive pricing

Closures and M&A on the table - Something's got to give: BILL has stated its "evaluating in both regions. Input costs seen broadly

all opportunities to play an active role in addressing industry challenges" which we interpret as stable. Slightly improved market conditions

considering capacity closures, and also M&A. Similar to UPM/Sappi increased scale enables in Europe & continued solid US. Maintenance

reallocating production & closing capacity easier. EU P&P sector is oversupplied, with industry we estimate at SEK390m in 3Q (2Q26:

profitability at unsustainable levels. Capacity closures, M&A, and footprint optimisation are SEK442m), implying SEK50m QoQ. Overall,

needed to balance S/D dynamics and support industry prices & margins. Investors are we model 3Q EBITDA rising QoQ to

disappointed that after >2yrs, large closures remain absent. A prisoner's dilemma persists, SEK900m (2Q26: SEK 661m), supporting

with small players reluctant to close & larger producers waiting on each other (finger pointing). cons expectations.

BILL is being proactive, with SEK0.8bn of 2026-27 cost savings (-650 headcount); however, we

would support BILL closing capacity in the EU. Its 2026 vols of 2.5mT is approx 0.35mT below

We believe the industry needs to permanently2021 levels of 2.9mT (equivalent to a machine running idle).