Thailand Telecommunications: Raising TPs for AIS & True: +CW opened into 2Q26 Release

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Thailand Telecommunications: Raising TPs for AIS & True: +CW opened into 2Q26 Release

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20 Jul 2026 10:23:57 ET │ 19 pages

Thailand Telecommunications

Raising TPs for AIS & True: +CW opened into 2Q26 Release

CITI'S TAKE

Arthur Pineda AC

We raise our estimates and TPs for True & AIS. This follows our expectations +65-6657-1174

that the companies are poised to potentially beat earlier guidance. While arthur.pineda@citi.com

we had earlier feared inflation-led consumption softening following earlier

utilities/fuel price increases, consumption trends may be better supported Luis Hilado

by recent government grants while cost-saving initiatives may serve to +65-6657-1170

accelerate margin benefits. In addition, tourist traffic has proven to be luis.hilado@citi.com

surprisingly resilient for Jan-May. We lift our TPs to Bt18.85 for True (from

Bt18.1) and Bt386 for AIS (fromBt365). We open a 30D positive catalyst

watch for the names with potential upside revision on guidance/street

outlook. Our preference remains with True given the steep valuation

discount to AIS which now trades at a premium to history.

Changes in our outlook — We had previously voiced concern on potential downside

risk to earnings linked to inflation-led consumption softness (ASEAN

Telecommunications: TH/PH telcos most at risk with inflation & roaming) led by

Middle East conflicts, oil impact and possible travel reductions. Consumption

trends however appear to be trending firmer than anticipated. 1Q26 had been firm

with limited impact, and we see 2Q26 as sustaining this positive/firm momentum,

supported by new government subsidies under “Thai Chuay Thai Plus” co-payment

scheme and firmer than anticipated tourist travel traffic for Jan-May (-2% YoY, +3%

vs. Aug-Dec).