Holding Through November: The 2028 Georgia Reset Decides the Next Leg

Research evidence excerpt

Holding Through November: The 2028 Georgia Reset Decides the Next Leg

sure carries into the 2028 case, whichever side runs it.

Exhibit 1 - SO FY3 P/E premium/discount vs

Three developments since our June note weigh on the multiple without touching our estimates. regulated electric peers

The NextEra and Dominion S-4 put an M&A question in the multiple: it describes an unnamed 25% 25%

suitor investors read as possibly SO, and our valuation excludes any deal. The Georgia fuel review 20% 20%

builds the 2028 record rather than near term earnings risk: it concludes by December 31, 2026, 15% 15%

and any base revenue effect defers into the 2028 case. Alabama became a 2029 question: six of 10%5% 10%5%

seven commissioners turn over effective January 2027, and what matters is how the state’s return 0% 0%

mechanism is designed once the freeze ends. -5% -5%

-10% -10%

Prem/(Disc) vs Regulated Electric Peers Average 8.9%We model $4.56 in 2026 rising to $6.20 in 2030, an 8.0% CAGR, below the guidance high end . Jul-25 Sep-25 Nov-25 Jan-26 Mar-26 May-26 Jul-26

in every year; the ceiling is regulatory, not operational. Signing the 6GW of large load contracts Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies analysis.

The market has taken the multiple most

now being finalized would raise equity needs in 2029 to 2030 first, with the EPS benefit following

of the way to parity, which prices an 8%

as assets enter rate base. The February 2027 capital plan roll forward will be the next meaningful

grower on its own guidance like an average

update ahead of the 2028 filing. Into July 30, the Q&A matters more than the $1.03: large load

one; the open question is whether the 2028

conversion news, equity language, M&A framing, and the fuel review characterization. Election

uncertainty justifies that. Related: watch