Macau GGR Softness Persists into 2Q Results; Staying Selective with WYNN/Galaxy

Research evidence excerpt

Macau GGR Softness Persists into 2Q Results; Staying Selective with WYNN/Galaxy

Global | Gaming EquityJulyResearch20, 2026

Figure 1 - Macau daily gaming revenueMacau GGR Softness Persists into 2Q

1,200 (MOP mn/day)

1,000Results; Staying Selective with WYNN/Galaxy

600This week marks the final period of World Cup–impacted results, with GGR

for the last seven days ending 11% below the July 2025 ADR. Focus now 400200

0shifts to 2Q earnings, with LVS reporting this week, and to YoY comparisons

for the balance of the year. Despite challenging comps, we continue to .

expect low-single-digit GGR growth. Our top picks remain WYNN and Source: Jefferies

Galaxy, which we believe are best positioned to benefit from the strength of Figure 2 - Macau gaming revenue seasonality

the premium mass segment. (Index-rebased)130 (MOPmn/day)900

120 850

Softness continues: Based on our industry checks, Macau’s GGR for the seven days ending 19 115110 800

July averaged ~MOP679mn/day, up 9.2% WoW and 11% below July 2025 ADR. Our channel 105100 750

95 700

checks indicate the wow improvement came from better VIP luck and volume: MTD mass and 90 650

600VIP were flat and 0-2% MoM, respectively, with win rate tracking above the normal range at 8580 J F M A M J J A S O N D

Seasonality* (LHS) 20263.9-4.1%. .

Source: Jefferies estimates, DICJ, *2015-2019&2024-2025

Weak outlook: JEFe/MKTe expect -8/-6% YoY declines in July, while our industry sources

estimate gaming revenue to improve to MOP670-740mn post World Cup, which implies

MOP20.1-20.9bn for the full month and -5 to -9% YoY. For the rest of the year, we still saw

tougher comps as the wealth effect from IPO listings began benefitting luxury sales and GGR

spending since mid-2025. We expect 3Q/4Q26 GGR to grow 2/4% YoY leading the full-year