Electronic Components | Japan US Investor Visits

Research evidence excerpt

Electronic Components | Japan US Investor Visits

g commodity MLCCs is not particularly strong, and we do not believe the

current environment of inventory accumulation based on expectations of shortages and

price increases in commodity MLCCs will persist for long.

We think Ibiden’s earnings expansion is likely to continue, but market expectations are

too high: We expect Ibiden to continue expanding earnings through growth in sales of

high-value-added ABF package substrates. Specifically, we expect mass production

shipments of ABF package substrates for NVIDIA’s Rubin platform to begin in 4Q F3/26,

with sales of Rubin-related ABF package substrates surpassing those for Blackwell in 1Q

F3/27. We also expect ABF package substrates for semiconductors to continue moving up

the value chain, supported by factors such as increasing SAP sizes. However, we forecast

OP of ¥94.7bn in F3/27 (vs. company guidance of ¥90.0bn and FactSet consensus of

¥99.7bn), ¥128.5bn in F3/28 (vs. guidance of ¥150bn and FS consensus of ¥151.5bn), and

¥242.6bn in F3/31 (vs. guidance of ¥300bn). While earnings expansion is likely to

continue, we believe market expectations for Ibiden’s earnings trajectory are too high. We

expect EMIB-T to contribute to Ibiden’s earnings growth. However, we believe meaningful

earnings contributions will not materialize until F3/29, and while pricing is likely to be

substantially higher than that of existing ABF package substrates, it will be difficult for

EMIB-T to achieve profit margins comparable to those generated from NVIDIA’s existing

products.

We expect Niterra's earnings to continue expanding, driven by automotive and SPE-

related businesses: Niterra holds the global No.1 market share in spark plugs at 47% and

oxygen sensors for exhaust gas applications at 47%.