Iran War: Is a Durable End Still Possible? w/ Ex-US Intelligence | REPLAY

Research evidence excerpt

Iran War: Is a Durable End Still Possible? w/ Ex-US Intelligence | REPLAY

Global | Washington Strategy July 19, 2026

Iran War: Is a Durable End Still Possible? w/ Ex-

US Intelligence | REPLAY

We hosted Jonathan Panikoff (Director at the Atlantic Council and Fm. U.S.

National Intelligence Officer). KTs: 1) A misinterpretation of the MoU triggered

the latest escalation; 2) The Strait of Hormuz is becoming a less critical energy

chokepoint; 3) Investors should monitor whether disruptions spread to the

Bab el-Mandeb Strait; 4) Managed stability remains the most likely near-term

outcome.

.

1. Misinterpretation of the MoU was the key trigger for the recent escalation. Both sides appear to Aniket Shah, PhD * | Head of Sust. &

have interpreted the MoU differently, particularly regarding navigating rights in the Strait of Hormuz. Transition Strategy

The U.S. viewed the agreement as restoring freedom of navigation and began escorting vessels +1 (212) 323-3976 | ashah14@jefferies.com

through the strait, while Iran maintained that all vessel movements still required Iranian coordination Lloyd Byrne * | Equity Analyst

and approval. The dispute escalated after Iran objected to U.S.-escorted transit operations and +1 (212) 323-7528 | lloyd.byrne@jefferies.com

several vessels were subsequently attacked. Yujin Kim * | Sust. & Transition Strategy

Associate

2. The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz as a chokepoint is likely to diminish over +1 (212) 778-8314 | ykim4@jefferies.com

time. While the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical energy corridor, governments and companies Luke Sussams ^ | Sust. & Transition Strategist

are increasingly investing in alternative routes and supply-chain redundancy. The discussion 44 (0)20 7548 4404 | lsussams@jefferies.com