Aurelia Metals: 4Q26 – Strike While the Gold Is Hot

Research evidence excerpt

Aurelia Metals: 4Q26 – Strike While the Gold Is Hot

roup opex closed

$315.3m, top of the $275-315m range, below VAe $322m. JEFe FY27 opex ~$356m (+13%

Earnings Changes. We have updated ourYoY), $22m below the 4Q $378m annualised exit but $41m above FY26. Every $10m FY27

estimates to account for Q4 FY26 results.opex offsets ~$400/oz of the gold reset benefit and closes only ~15% of the $100/t Peak LT

We have adjusted our FY27 and beyond togap, which looks aspirational.

account for the change in strategy targetting

Executing growth. Peak plant expansion to 1.1-1.2Mtpa on track, ball mill capex lifted ~$3m higher near-term gold, at higher operating

to $11.6m on concrete/contractors/commissioning. FY26 growth capex $49.9m undershot costs, and modestly delaying the base metals

the $60-75m guide on ball-mill slippage into FY27. Great Cobar 438m in 4Q (1,823m total), production rotation.

first dev ore 1H FY28, first stope 2H FY28, steady-state 500ktpa FY30. The tertiary ball mill

is not used for Pb-Zn campaigns, so Pb-Zn throughput can keep pushing pre-commissioning.

Figure 1 - Mining Unit Costs

New Occidental (3.2koz p.a. / $3.3m capex) slots into the ball mill during Pb-Zn campaigns

$215without displacing fresh feed (feasibility 1H FY27, construction 2H FY27, ops FY28). Cobar A$/t- $195$235

Shire Council 1.1-1.2Mtpa consent progresses in parallel. 40ktpa CuEq FY28 target unchanged. Costs $175

Unit $155

Mining $135$115Refi facilitates capital mgmt. Cash closed $143.9m (+$49.2m QoQ, +14% VAe $126m), $95

including $45.2m restricted-cash release ($36.2m net financing inflow after in-quarter cash- $75

Reported Peak Forecast Federation Reportedbacking). Liquidity $183.9m with the $40m RCF undrawn. The new facility carries no cash- PeakFederation Forecast Mining Target