Examining Copper Production Trends: 2Q26, Part I

Research evidence excerpt

Examining Copper Production Trends: 2Q26, Part I

Global | Metals & Mining EquityJulyResearch19, 2026

Examining Copper Production Trends: 2Q26, Based on 2Q results reported to date,

aggregate 1H'26 copper production declinedPart I 6.4% y/y, reflecting weaker output across the

We track quarterly copper production from miners representing ~65% of global miners that have reported so far. This early

read reinforces execution risk as a near-term

mined copper supply. Based on the few 2Q reports to date, aggregate copper supply constraint and skews copper price risk

production for 2Q'26 declined 7.2% y/y, though volumes were modestly higher to the upside.

sequentially. The weakness was driven by ongoing operational challenges at

Ivanhoe, Anto, Rio, and BHP, where disruptions, lower grades, and execution Reported Copper Production from Select

issues weighed on output, reinforcing execution risk as a constraint on copper Companies (kt)

*Includes companies that have reported 2Q26

supply. production so far

2,249 2,104

1,809 1,949 2,023

This note is the latest in our ongoing quarterly series on global copper production trends. In this 1,630 1,615

installment, we incorporate data from the few companies that have reported 2Q'26 volumes so far.

As discussed in our prior notes, the impact of mine supply growth on the copper market balance is a

key point of debate. Some believe that there will be a supply overhang over the next year as projects 1H'20 1H'21 1H'22 1H'23 1H'24 1H'25 1H'26

continue to ramp up and/or expand (KFM, QB2, OT underground, Cobre Panama, Grasberg, etc), .Source: Company filings, Jefferies estimates

with market deficits therefore unlikely until later this decade. Although we do include production