JEF Macro Weekly—Getting More Concerned Around Geopolitics; Breaking Momentum

Research evidence excerpt

JEF Macro Weekly—Getting More Concerned Around Geopolitics; Breaking Momentum

Global | Equity Strategy EquityJulyResearch19, 2026

STRATEGY NOTEJEF Macro Weekly—Getting More Concerned

Around Geopolitics; Breaking Momentum

Mohit is getting more concerned about geopolitics\oil prices, thinks investors Tom provides an update to outlook:

should lower risk exposure. DeSanctis likes what he sees in Small, but would Slightly higher growth and inflation, but a

like "Pause that Refreshes". Thinks High Beta\Mo weakens. Brief relief in CPI Fed cut at the end of the year.

\PPI puts Fed on hold for now according to GREED & fear, however main reason

for weaker numbers was MoU. Assuming resolution in conflict with Iran brings

reversal in energy prices, inflation slows, Tom thinks Warsh delivers a cut.

GREED & fear—A relief for markets was that US CPI and PPI inflation slowed more than expected

in June, running at 3.5% YoY and 5.5% YoY respectively. This should give the Fed more reason

to remain on hold even though the main reason for the weaker numbers was the MoU-triggered

decline in energy prices, and that risk has now revived.

Mohit Kumar—We are getting a bit concerned around geopolitics and oil prices staying at elevated

levels for longer. As oil prices remain elevated, we could get more hawkish comments from the

central banks. Our view still remains that we should not see any hike from the Fed, BoE or the ECB

this year. Increasing concerns over geopolitics and risk of short term elevated oil prices argues for

some risk reduction.

Thomas Simons—Despite a number of sources of uncertainty, the most likely path forward for the

economy is continued above-trend growth. Fading the worst-case scenario continues to be the

most useful way to frame the economic outlook.