Aspen Security Forum: 10 Insights & Investment Implications | REPLAY

Research evidence excerpt

Aspen Security Forum: 10 Insights & Investment Implications | REPLAY

Washington Strategy

July 19, 2026

6. Japan is key US ally. Fm. Ambassador Rahm Emanuel identified Japan as the most important

US ally in the Indo-Pacific and praised PM Takaichi as a strong leader deserving of an even closer

partnership (see here, here & here). The read-through was bullish on Japan both as a US ally and as

a strong country in its own right.

7. Tariffs are here to stay, even if they don't work. Trump 1.0 tariffs have been kept and expanded

by both Biden and Trump 2.0, cementing them as a bipartisan feature of the US system. Even after

the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA authority, the administration is pivoting to Section 301 to

keep tariff pressure on trading partners. Efficacy remains contested, with the current USTR flagging

manufacturing as a % of GDP – which has shrunk over the 9+ years of the tariff experiment.

8. Critical minerals reshoring is non-negotiable. China refines ~75% of critical minerals and even

more of certain rare earths, which the IEA's Fatih Birol called the most concentrated commodity

ecosystem in history. This concentration was cited as the reason the US backed down in last year's

trade conflict with China. Washington is expected to solve this through sustained industrial policy

and government backstopping in the MP Materials mold, since low returns and messy environmental

permitting mean these projects will not happen otherwise.

9. The view that Ukraine has lost the war was firmly rejected. The US-Europe-NATO community

expressed confidence that Ukraine is materially stronger than critics assumed. One panelist, however,

warned that this strength could corner Russia into more severe retaliation against Ukraine.

10. Investment Implications: