WAIC KTA: Determined but More Pragmatic; Data/Semi in Focus

Research evidence excerpt

WAIC KTA: Determined but More Pragmatic; Data/Semi in Focus

China (PRC) | Technology EquityJulyResearch20, 2026

WAIC KTA: Determined but More Pragmatic;

Data/Semi in Focus

China's AI policies focus on open-source models, export of AI/compute to

EMs, and int'l collaboration on standards/governance. Semis set to be the

key driver. We see super nodes connected by optical modules/NPO, and

3D DRAM stacking, as emerging solutions. China is aggressively catching

up on data generation/labelling and agent harnessing/productization.

Robotics still a big theme, but with a pragmatically lower focus on

humanoids. Top picks: AMEC, SMIC, VNET.

China's AI strategies focus on developing a China-friendly EM ecosystem. President Xi's

address at the 2026 WAIC (his first attendance) indicates China's key strategy is to export AI/

compute/green energy to EMs, which complements its One-Belt, One-Road program. Thus,

Chinese AI players will likely have to maintain an open-source approach, which is less positive

for monetization. Compute and, therefore, semi remain the key success factors in this strategy,

implying a high likelihood of big foundry capex ahead. Given that China's Kimi 3 (by MoonShot)

is now only 5% behind Anthropic's Fable 5 in terms of intelligence (see here), China's open-

source approach is very likey to put pricing pressure on US closed-source models, but will

also make China's models affordable for other EMs. In our view, this strategy could "kill two

birds with one stone." We believe the most likely US response is to 1) tighten export controls

to prevent AI chips from being diverted to China, and 2) require all US AI players to put anti-

distillation features in their advanced models.

Supernode connected by optics and stacking DRAM on GPUs seem a popular roadmap for

China.