Data & Insights: Strong Port Container Volume Growth; Rail Remains Weak

Research evidence excerpt

Data & Insights: Strong Port Container Volume Growth; Rail Remains Weak

ly have a strong correlation with JSW

Infra’s flagship Jaigarh / Dharamtar Ports. In Jun-26, Adani Ports reported 13% YoY volume

growth. Adjusting for International Ports, we estimate 3% YoY domestic volume growth vs 4%

YoY for the industry.

4% YoY decline in IR container volumes vs. 10% YoY rise at Ports: While there was some

recovery in IR volumes in May-Jun-26 vs. Apr-26, in line with recovery in trade volumes, we

believe sustained benefit of transshipment volumes may have contributed to higher growth at

Ports. Jul-26 to date, IR container volumes have declined 7% YoY, reverting to the trend of 7%

YoY decline seen since the Middle-East tensions began.

2-3% rise in freight rates in Jun- Jul 26 vs. May 26: Diesel Prices are up 9% since May-26

with the impact of Middle-East tensions; Fuel accounts for 40-50% of Truck operating costs,

we estimate. Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicle (CV) truck registrations remain strong

at 20%+ YoY growth in Jun-Jul 2026.

Prefer Ports to Logistics: We expect 15-29% FY26-30E EBITDA CAGR for JSWI and ADSEZ, led

by 13-19% CAGR in volumes, between capacity addition, government’s terminal privatisation

initiatives at Major Ports, and efficiencies. Concor is a key beneficiary of the Dedicated Freight

Corridor connectivity to JNPT; rise in competitive intensity with port companies pursuing

logistics is a key monitorable.

Exhibit 1 - Ports and Logistics: Valuation snapshot

Company Mkt Cap Reco CMP (Rs) Target Upside (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x)

(USD mn) Price FY26A FY27E FY28E FY26A FY27E FY28E Koundinya Nimmagadda * | Equity Associate

(Rs/Shr)

Adani Ports 44,877 Buy 1,837 2,160 18 20.9 18.6 15.3 30.9 27.9 22.3 +91 22 42246159 | knimmagadda@jefferies.com