Takeaways from Jun-Qtr Results of HDFC, ICICI, Axis, Kotak

Research evidence excerpt

Takeaways from Jun-Qtr Results of HDFC, ICICI, Axis, Kotak

India | Financials EquityJulyResearch20, 2026

Takeaways from Jun-Qtr Results of HDFC,

ICICI, Axis, Kotak

For Jun-Qtr, core earnings for Top-4 Pvt banks (HDFC, ICICI, Kotak, Axis)

was ahead or in line with estimates. This Qtr was to see high loan growth

& lower NIM due to WA-conflict led impact on credit market, so we focus

on NII over NIM. Asset quality stayed strong & opex growth was controlled.

ICICI surprised positively, followed by Kotak and Axis; HDFCB was relatively

weaker. We raised FY27 est for most bks, by up to 5%. Pecking order HDFC,

Axis, ICICI, Kotak.

Key trends

Strong loan growth led by corporate. Loan growth for all banks was strong in the range

of 15-20%, reflecting uptick in corporate loans and buoyancy in SME loan growth that was

partly offset by slow (but improving retail loan growth). The uptick in corporate loans reflects

sector wide trend of rise in demand and market share gains for banks over bonds and external

borrowings. Our checks indicate the corporate growth has remained high post Qtr-end too and

will moderate with normalisation of crude/ commodity prices and improving bond/ external

funding market. Hence, we expect average loan growth for the year to be higher than Mar-27e

levels.

NIMs fall due to mix and repricing drags. Rise in share of corporate loans and recent surge in

wholesale pricing has dragged NIMs this qtr. Banks that have grown faster (like Axis) or have

recently changed stance on growth (like HDFCB) have seen higher pressure on NIMs. ICICI

Bank has done best in managing NIMs (core NIMs are up 1bps QOQ as well as YOY) and Kotak

has also been stable (adjusted for number of days). We expect margins to see some pressure

in 2Q and improve from 3Q onwards.