Wrap Stars: Trends in European Paper & Packaging Prices (July)

Research evidence excerpt

Wrap Stars: Trends in European Paper & Packaging Prices (July)

EUROPE | Paper & Packaging EquityJulyResearch20, 2026

Wrap Stars: Trends in European Paper & Register to meet Stora Enso and UPM

management in New York at JefferiesPackaging Prices (July) Industrials Conference on 9-10 September:

We highlight EU P&P pricing trends on p2-16. Germany virgin Register for meetings (HERE)

containerboard (kraftliner) prices increased +€60/t (or +7%) in July. US/ Amcor (AMCR) •

Ball (BALL)Iran cost inflation uncertainty remains, however, EU order books cited as •

Graphic Packaging (GPK)solid in 3Q, and US packaging demand has been reasonably steady. Investor •

sentiment on pulp is cautious into 2H26, with China hardwood pulp rolling • International Paper (IP)

Packaging Corp (PKG)over in 3Q. Canfor 300kT (1% supply) closure likely marks the softwood •

Silgan (SLGN) •trough, but more closures are needed. Smurfit Westrock (SW) •

Sonoco (SON) •FacePalm - Negative Surprise for European Containerboard (here): Palm the Europe #6 in Stora Enso (STERV FH) •containerboard (paper for boxes) has announced the conversion of its 400kT King's Lynn (UK) UPM (UPM FH) •newsprint machine into 700kT recycled containerboard (paper for boxes). We estimate it adds

1.6% new capacity to the already oversupplied 44mT Europe (excl Russia) containerboard

market. This is a big negative surprise, that will impact investors perception of the EU P&P

sector and cboard pricing in 2027.

EU virgin containerboard (paper for box) increased +€60/t MoM in July (here): While recycled

(testliner) prices were stable MoM, positively virgin (kraftliner) increased +€60/t (or +7%) in

July. This was ahead of expectations and good for virgin biased producers Mondi, SCA, Stora

& SW.