UK Housebuilders Forecast Datapack & What We Learnt Over the Last 2 Weeks

Research evidence excerpt

UK Housebuilders Forecast Datapack & What We Learnt Over the Last 2 Weeks

exposure should support forecasts,delivery of all types of housing and support his focus on driving the domestic economy.

with the group strongly positioned for any

Balance sheets matter - the haves, and the have-nots. While the timing of the step-up in recovery) and Berkeley (beneficiary from

capital returns and commitment to buybacks from Barratt Redrow last week surprised (ahead housing policy change in London, and with

of the arrival of the new CFO in Aug & CEO in Sep), the strategy itself did not (Bellway, Berkeley substantial capital return potential over the

& Taylor Wimpey already utilising buybacks). Persimmon remains the outlier, having not yet medium term). In this report we have made

announced a strategy to pursue share buybacks or announce additional capital returns. Barratt changes to our forecasts and price target

believes that it can continue land purchases well below completion levels, anticipating the for Barratt Redrow, Crest Nicholson, Taylor

changes in planning to drive a step-up in the availability of land in the coming years to provide Wimpey and Vistry. See page 14 for details.

sufficient supply when it returns to the market. However we see the balance of investment

in land for future growth vs returning capital to shareholders as key. As such we prefer

stocks starting with larger land banks as this provides a greater comfort on future outlet

count (Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey). On the other side this step back from the land market is

unhelpful for Vistry and Crest who both look for land sales to support cash generation. Liquidity

discussions feel like they will continue through the summer, while the impact on profits on land

bank margins could stretch into FY27.