Weekend Healthcare Pulse: Surf‘s up or is that a Blue Wave - Our Healthcare Policy Outlook as we enter midterm season

Research evidence excerpt

Weekend Healthcare Pulse: Surf‘s up or is that a Blue Wave - Our Healthcare Policy Outlook as we enter midterm season

n the House, but prediction environment, we see four major policy topics 1) Reversing Trump

markets expect around 15-20 seats. While this would seem a era policies; 2) Expanding coverage; 3) Improving affordability; and

smaller pickup than other time periods given the President’s low 4) Potential emerging areas of focus in AI and vertical integration.

approval ratings, we see around 200 seats as roughly a floor for

Republicans, based on polls, and therefore would not expect a Reversing Trump policies - Following midterms, we see three

much larger pickup by Democrats. priorities for Democrats: 1) Reversing Trump policies 2) Improving

affordability 3) Expanding healthcare coverage. We believe initial

For the Senate, ME and NC are the states expected to most likely focus will be on reversing Trump policies such as renewing the

swing Dem, given ME voting for Harris in 24 and NC retirement of enhanced Marketplace subsidies and overturning aspects of the

Tillis and a strong candidate in former Governor Cooper. The next OBBBA. Democrats will seek to renew the prior enhanced subsidy.

two states are less likely, with OH, AK and TX the more probable They may seek to obtain this by offering a compromise to restore

toss-ups. Movement of these states would signify a strong blue the higher subsidy amount but also to increase the availability of

wave, which certainly is possible, but will be difficult to call all the HRAs in order to win Trump’s signature.

way up to the election given that these states went for Trump by

over 10 points. Prediction markets, such as Polymarket, suggest Democrats will also seek to loosen Medicaid work requirements.