SBS Prices Move Higher; Market Conditions Increasingly Tight in Cboard

Research evidence excerpt

SBS Prices Move Higher; Market Conditions Increasingly Tight in Cboard

USA | Paper & Packaging EquityJulyResearch20, 2026

Chart 1 - Sensitivity to a $50/ton N.A.SBS Prices Move Higher; Market Conditions

Boxboard Price Change

2026E Net Tons % of Total Co. JEFe's % of Contracts Not EBITDA Impact

Produced Production Tied to Cost+ Mechanisms ($ mil)Increasingly Tight in Cboard GPK CUK 1,641,761 45% 60% $49

CRB 1,399,790 39% 60% $42

SBS Folding Carton 191,670 5% 59% $6

SBS Cupstock 383,341 11% 59% $11

SW CUK 1,130,000 31% 66% $37Export prices for cboard moved higher, with the domestic market seeing CRB 771,000 21% 60% $23

SBS 1,695,000 47% 76% $64

. Source: Company Reports, RISI, Jefferies Estimatesincreasingly tight conditions with solid box demand. SBS prices moved higher &

pricing for the different grades of boxboard appear to have found an equilibrium.

The risk of further price declines in CRB & SBS have been minimized & for an

out-of-favored stock, shares of GPK could react favorably.

Cboard seeing tightening mkt conditions. July domestic cboard prices were unchanged after

rising $50/ton in Jun, but price realization broadened with an incremental 20-30% of contacts seeing

higher prices in Jul (vs 55-60% in Jun). The cboard price increase is not facing much pushback on

the box side. Supply conditions tightened further, with recycled mills facing OCC shortages from the

demand uptick and OCC prices rising $10 this month. Supply dynamics were further constrained

by Pine Hill (870k ton/~2% capacity) not expected to be back online until Aug, and RISI noting

another major integrated mill system experiencing shipping delays from a large shut last year.

Encouragingly, the Riverdale mill conversion is operationally and making lightweight linerboard and