Banks: H.8 Loans + Interest Rate Update (7/20)

Research evidence excerpt

Banks: H.8 Loans + Interest Rate Update (7/20)

USA | Banks EquityJulyResearch20, 2026

Exhibit 1 - C&I Growth Incl. NDFI (Avg Balance)Banks: H.8 Loans + Interest Rate Update (7/20)

3QTD vs. 3Q Historicals

0.9%The Fed’s weekly H.8 data (Exhibit 6) as of 7/8 indicates 0.8% unannualized 0.7%

0.5%sequential average loan growth quarter-to-date in 3Q, above the 10-year 0.3%

0.1%historical 3QTD of 0.7% and above the 2.0% increase recorded in 2Q’26. C&I -0.1%

-0.3%loan growth (incl. NDFI) is up 0.6% unannualized 3QTD, above the C&I 10-year -0.5%

Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13historical trend (incl. NDFI) of up 0.3%. CRE loan growth is up 0.5% unannualized

3QTD vs the CRE 10-year trend of up 0.7%. .Source: FactSet, 3QFederal2026 W/W Reserve,Growth JefferiesQ3 Historical 10-yr avg

Exhibit 2 - CRE Loan Growth (Avg Balance)

Please click here for an excel copy of our H.8 dataset. 2.0%

Fed Watch: Fed Funds futures imply a 14% probability of a 25 bp rate hike at the July 29th FOMC 1.5%

meeting. Looking ahead, the September 2026 meeting implies a 61% chance of at least one rate 1.0%

hike, with probabilities for the December 2026 meeting of 82% for at least one hike and 39% for at 0.5%

least two hikes from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Rate curve signals remain mixed. The 0.0%

Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week1-month SOFR vs. 5-Year Treasury spread remained in positive territory at +0.66%, up 2 bps W- -0.5% Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

W and up 46 bps over the past 90 days. Meanwhile, the 2/10 Treasury spread remains positive at 3Q 2026 W/W Growth Q3 Historical 10-yr avg

.

+0.37%, up 1 bps W-W and down 17 bps over the last 90 days. Source: FactSet, Federal Reserve, Jefferies