The Right Chips For the AI Job?

Research evidence excerpt

The Right Chips For the AI Job?

nal Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull, New Data Era: Positive

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 17 Pricing Power: Positive

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

BULL CASE $453.00 BASE CASE $360.00 BEAR CASE $194.00

11x EV/Sales FY27; ~41x Bull FY27 P/E of 9.1x EV/Sales FY27 or ~35x FY27 EPS of 6.3x EV/Sales FY27; 24.6x FY27 Bear EPS of

$11.02 $10.30 $7.89

iPhone replacement cycles accelerate in Services and margins remain resilient, while iPhone 17 cycle disappoints as consumer

FY26/FY27 with Robotics as an long-term investors start to expect stronger iPhone spending weakens more than expected

upside. Consumer demand returns, and cycles ahead. Revenue grows 15% Y/Y in amidst synthetic price increases. Growth

stronger than expected iPhone 17 upgrade FY27, driven by 10%+ Services growth and slows further across the portfolio as

intentions + mix shift to higher end iPhones mid-teens % Products growth. GM may discretionary income is pressured by hard

drives mid-teens Y/Y iPhone revenue contract Y/Y in FY27 driven by higher landing, leading to just LSD of Product rev

growth, while rising component costs are Product revenue mix and memory costs, growth and decelerating Services rev

mitigated given Apple's bargaining power while Apple leverages the supply chain and growth in FY26. With revenue slightly

against consumers and the supply chain. Our repricing to mitigate the cost impact. The growing but margin contracting, FY26 EPS