BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE

Research evidence excerpt

BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE

17 July 2026

US Communications Infrastructure

Data Center Pipeline Probabilities: Separating the credible

developers from dudes with PowerPoints

New data center developments are popping up like weeds—it’s hard to know what to believe Madison Rezaei

+1 917 344 8622 in terms of future GWs of capacity. We certainly don’t have a crystal ball, but we have spent

madison.rezaei@bernsteinsg.com a lot of time in the data center industry and think we’re pretty good at sniffing out the real

builds from the “bragawatts”. Today, we assess the data center pipeline in North America

Chad Dillard based on our Data Center Pipeline Tracker and assign completion likelihoods on a per-project

+1 917 344 8469

chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com basis. We estimate 1/3 of the deals in the pipeline tracker will actually be completed

—135 GW in North America.

Nancy Wu

+1 917 344 8545 To be clear: this doesn’t mean “50% of data center projects will be canceled” (we agree

nancy.wu@bernsteinsg.com with you, Semianalysis!). What it does mean is that we intentionally cast a wide net with our

monthly Pipeline Tracker, with the goal of keeping an eye on progress and builds across

Miguel Marques, CFA the U.S. data center market. Our dataset includes existing facilities, announcements, land +1 917 344 8432

miguel.marques@bernsteinsg.com banks, canceled projects, and projects under various stages of development. That dataset

indicates almost 500GW of nameplate pipeline...we know most of it will never be built.

Press releases are cheap...concrete is not.

So with that in mind, we added a new layer to our tracker: a probability score per-project.

We’ve looked at this from a few different angles: at what stage is the project (more