SBA Communications Corp (SBAC.O): SBA Likely to Amplify Focus on Total Returns; C2Q26 Preview

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SBA Communications Corp (SBAC.O): SBA Likely to Amplify Focus on Total Returns; C2Q26 Preview

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17 Jul 2026 10:42:53 ET │ 23 pages

SBA Communications Corp (SBAC.O)

SBA Likely to Amplify Focus on Total Returns; C2Q26 Preview

CITI'S TAKE

SBAC is down 17% over the past 3-months, including down 3% over the

past month. We believe the stock has largely unwound the positive value

optionality from a possible privatization and buyside sentiment may have Buy

shifted to view possible Starlink mobile entry into the US market as a net- Price (16 Jul 26 16:00) US$185.04

negative instead of a net-positive. We remain positive on Buy-rated SBAC

Target price US$235.00shares with stabilizing organic leasing and a sum-of-parts discount vs its

competitors. We believe a stable 2Q result and FY26 guide can be helpful, Expected share price return 27.0%

as churn headwinds in both the US and Latam should ease beginning in Expected dividend yield 2.7%

2027 and can help unlock better annual AFFOPS growth. Our 2Q26 financial

Expected total return 29.7%outlook is close to consensus on revenue and AFFOPS, while slightly below

on EBITDA. We attribute the variances to timing, while our FY26 outlook is Market Cap US$19,626M

much closer to consensus on these 3 metrics. SBA is scheduled to report

earnings on 8/3 AMC.

Earnings Focus — At a high level, we expect the market to focus on long-term Price Performance

growth prospects, possible privatization given the pullback in the share price (link), (RIC: SBAC.O, BB: SBAC US)

while evaluating whether or not LEO satellites pose a net-opportunity or net-risk for

the Tower stocks. For 2Q26, we expect investors to focus on normalized domestic

and total organic leasing growth, overall site leasing revenue, EBITDA, and AFFOPS

growth.