First Take: 2Q26 Beat on Growth and LR, But With Notable Rate Decel

Research evidence excerpt

First Take: 2Q26 Beat on Growth and LR, But With Notable Rate Decel

and Other -2%. Middle Market +7% and Select Accounts +4%

improved sequentially while National Accounts +5% was weaker.

Bond & Specialty Insurance (+/-) u/w income of $180mn vs JEF/Cons of $158mn/$154mn and

$197mn in PY. 14% NPW growth was far better than JEF/Cons 5%/3% and accelerated compared

to 7% 1Q26. Growth was driven by 40% surety, partially driven by large projects. The underlying CR

of 89.2% missed JEF/Cons 88.0%/87.6% and was 145bps higher YoY. The miss was across both

the 49.4% AYLR (~48.5% JEF/Cons) and 39.8% ER (~39.4% JEF/Cons). Lighter CAT of 0.5pts and

stronger PYD of 7pts drove the segment beat. Mgmt liability RPC modestly decelerated by 10bps

QoQ to 2.9%, relatively stable QoQ.

Personal Insurance (+) u/w income of $820mn vs JEF/Cons of $(70)mn/$99mn and u/w income

of $474mn in PY. The u/w beat was driven by both auto/home on both a reported and underlying

basis, though growth was better than JEF (missed street). Total PI underlying CR of 77.3% was

400/250bps better than JEF/Cons, driven mostly by the underlying LR of 52.7% though ER of 24.6%

also beat. Auto AYLR of 62.9% improved 400bps YoY and beat estimates by ~460bps. Home AYLR

of 44.2% improved by 40bps YoY and beat Cons by a similar amount.

Andrew Andersen * | Equity Analyst

Auto NPW was -6% Domestic YoY, reflecting -3% PIF growth and 0% RPC (-80bps QoQ). -3% +1 (212) 284-8105 | aandersen@jefferies.com

Domestic Auto PIF decline was similar QoQ, though retention was flat at 82%. Home -3% Domestic Suneet Kamath, CFA * | Equity Analyst

NPW growth reflected -5% PIF and 6.6% RPC (-360bps QoQ). -1% QoQ Domestic PIF decline was +1 (212) 778-8602 | skamath@jefferies.com

similar QoQ and retention was flat at 85%.