May Building Permit Data: Commercial New Construction Declines

Research evidence excerpt

May Building Permit Data: Commercial New Construction Declines

Industrials

Equity Research

July 17, 2026

Exhibit 1 - Seasonally Adjusted Residential New Construction Permits vs Seasonally Adjusted Housing Starts Jefferies' New Resi Permit data leads reported

80% housing starts on a seasonally adjusted basis

60%

40% by 1-4 months. May data reads +5.4%, up from

20% April's read of -1.1%. Stocks impacted: BLD,

0% BLDR, CRH, IBP, HEI, AMRZ, OC, SGO, ITW

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

Seasonally Adjusted Housing Starts Seasonally Adjusted Residential New Construction Permits

.

Source: Jefferies, BuildFax, U.S. Census Bureau

Exhibit 2 - Seasonally Adjusted Residential Existing Structure Permits (TTM) vs LIRA Moving 4 Quarter Change Our permit data for residential refurbishments

30% and upgrades has a strong track record of

25%

20% leading Harvard's LIRA index, a widely tracked

15% indicator of refurbishment data. If anything,

10% the lead may be longer than we'd like at 6-12

5%

0% months. Coming out of the GFC, the lead was

-5% nearly 2 years. Stocks impacted: CRH, FERG,

-10% MAS, MHK, SGO, SIKA, HLMN, ITW

-15%

Seasonally Adjusted Residential Existing Structure Permits (TTM) LIRA Moving 4 Quarter Change y/y

Source: Jefferies, BuildFax, Harvard

Exhibit 3 - Seasonally Adj. Residential Housing Permits (Census) v. Seasonally Adj. Residential New Jefferies' residential permit index is highly

Construction Permits

correlated with Census Bureau residential

80%

permit data. As such, it provides little

60% additional insight but does corroborate our

40% data set.

20%

0%

Seasonally Adjusted Census Residential Housing Permits Total Seasonally Adjusted Residential New Construction Permits

Source: Jefferies, BuildFax, Census Bureau

Exhibit 4 - Total Commercial Construction Spending vs.