Estee Lauder Inc (EL.N): China Industry Checks & Cosmetics Survey Results for EL

Research evidence excerpt

Estee Lauder Inc (EL.N): China Industry Checks & Cosmetics Survey Results for EL

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17 Jul 2026 05:00:00 ET │ 42 pages

Estee Lauder Inc (EL.N)

China Industry Checks & Cosmetics Survey Results for EL

CITI'S TAKE

Last week we published a global collaborative global report detailing the

results of our most recent China cosmetics survey. In this note we recap the

survey results including our thoughts on the implications for EL (Mainland

China is ~20% of sales). Additionally, we include findings from recent China Buy

industry checks including 6/18 holiday data, China cosmetics retail sales & Catalyst Watch: Upside, expires 12-OCT-26Hainan Duty Free sales. Overall, we remain positive on EL and expect

continued momentum in F4Q’26 (reporting 8/19 – see our positive catalyst Price (16 Jul 26 16:00) US$82.84

watch) with solid delivery across the China ecosystem supported by Target price US$110.00

favorable industry checks. Additionally, we are constructive on the Expected share price return 32.8%trajectory of the underlying business, which has improved under the Beauty

Reimagined strategy. We think EL is well positioned in China as evidenced Expected dividend yield 1.8%

by our survey results, which remains a key longer-term growth driver. Expected total return 34.5%

Market Cap US$29,971M

Survey Takeaways — We polled 3,000 consumers to better understand dynamics

impacting beauty purchasing behavior. Overall, industry demand remains resilient,

but consumption is bifurcated: high-spending, top-tier consumers are trading up,

but younger & lower-tier demographics are price sensitive. Competitively, foreign

Price Performancebrands are discounting to expand while domestic leaders move upmarket.