Transurban Group | Asia Pacific Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Transurban Group | Asia Pacific Risk Reward Update

of Risk Rewards Themes here

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 17

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE A$17.42 BASE CASE A$14.68 BEAR CASE A$11.94

~22.3x FY27e proportional EV/EBITDA ~19.8x FY27e proportional EV/EBITDA ~17.2x FY27e proportional EV/EBITDA

Underlying FY26-28e traffic growth of Underlying FY26-28e traffic growth of ~1% Underlying FY26-28e traffic growth of ~-1%

~4.0% p.a. p.a. p.a.

Traffic boosted by diversion from public Delivery of committed projects on budget Commuter traffic slows, e.g., pax/vehicle

transit. and reasonably within time. rises, travel restrictions/WFH.

Inclusion of large intra-urban projects (or NSW Concession negotiations benign. Commercial traffic slows with a slowing

concession extensions) in Australia (e.g., economy and tighter credit conditions.

Brisbane decongestion ahead of the 2032 Risk-free rate of ~4.9% applied (50/50 blend

Olympics) or North America. of current and long-term 10-year bond North American traffic slows, e.g., ride-

yields). sharing toll exemption.

NSW Concession negotiations increase

tolling points. NSW Concession negotiations see

unanticipated problems, e.g., congestion.

Risk-free rate of ~3.9% applied.

Project delay, cost overrun, and non-

payment of liquidated damages.

Combined stresses require balance sheet