Antofagasta Plc: 2Q26 production soft...FY26 guide unchanged

Research evidence excerpt

Antofagasta Plc: 2Q26 production soft...FY26 guide unchanged

Global Research

15 July 2026ab

Antofagasta Plc Equities

United Kingdom2Q26 production soft...FY26 guide unchanged

Mining

12-month rating Neutral

2Q26: production/sales 6%/14% miss vs VA consensus 12m price target 4,000p

2Q26 production is below consensus & unit costs slightly higher. ANTO reiterated FY26

production & net cash cost guidance (gross costs +Usc10/lb on energy costs) implying a Price (14 Jul 2026) 3,843p

significant step-up in production in 2H (+37% h/h and +15% y/y to hit mid-point of

guidance) that should bring unit costs down. ANTO has historically had a 2H weighted RIC: ANTO.L BBG: ANTO LN

production profile and therefore we believe guidance remains achievable; however in Trading data and key metrics

our view production is more likely to be at the low end of ANTO's 650-700kt range and

52-wk range 4,455p-1,822

see potential for modest downgrades to FY26 consensus due to lower production/sales

Market cap. £37.9b/US$50.7b

assumptions. Importantly ANTO's key projects remain on-track that should drive ~30%

Shares o/s 986m (ORD)

volume growth by 2028/29 and they reiterated FY26 capex guidance of $3.4bn.

Free float 35%

Production: 2Q26 copper production of 142kt is 6% below Visible Alpha (VA) Avg. daily volume ('000) 1,363

consensus. The miss was driven by 7kt concentrate inventory build at LosP Avg. daily value (m) £53.3

(flagged but higher than expected), lower grades at Centinela & lower Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$11.1b

throughput/grades at Antucoya. ANTO reiterated FY26 copper production P/BV (12/26E) 4.6x

guidance of 650-700kt, and expects higher grades & unwind of concentrate Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 0.4x

inventory build at LosP and recovering grades/throughput at Centinela