Oerlikon The time is now - Transfer of coverage and upgrade to Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Oerlikon The time is now - Transfer of coverage and upgrade to Buy

passenger traffic and aircraft production) and General Industry (demand for

12/27E 0.26 0.34 34 0.24

critical materials such as tungsten and yttrium, correlation analysis with orders and sales

12/28E 0.29 0.40 37 0.28

included). In aggregate, our proprietary machine learning model also supports HSD

growth outlook in the near-term. Together, these drivers support stronger sales growth Leonie Zirn

(FY26E UBSe 8.1% vs cons 6.7%) than currently reflected in market expectations. Analyst

leonie.zirn@ubs.com

Expected top-line growth and mix drive margin prospects +41-44-235 0154

We expect Oerlikon's margin profile to improve as the company transitions to a pure- Sebastian Vogel, CFA

play Surface Solutions business. Reduced cyclicality post divestment, better mix, Analyst

sebastian.vogel@ubs.com

operating leverage, and ongoing cost savings should support EBITDA (UBS adj.) margin

+41-44 239 90 45

expanding to 18.9% for FY26E.

Valuation: DCF-based PT of CHF5.7

We reflect our revised forecasts in our DCF, raising our PT to CHF5.7 (prior CHF3.8).

Despite the improving earnings outlook, Oerlikon still trades at a 17% discount vs

history, which we view as undemanding. Despite exhibiting a FY25-28E sales CAGR

above the median of Surface Solution peers, Oerlikon's valuation does not fully reflect

this higher growth yet (FY27E EV/Sales 1.6x vs peers 2.1x). We maintain our long-term

assumptions for terminal sales growth rate/WACC at 2.5%/ 7.7%, respectively. With

this note, we transfer coverage of Oerlikon from Sebastian Vogel to Leonie Zirn.

Highlights (CHFm) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 2,693 2,372 1,568 1,631 1,769 1,859 1,925 1,972

EBIT (UBS) 274 234 140 180 193 218 234 242