Asia Bicycle Sector: Getting out of the woods

Research evidence excerpt

Asia Bicycle Sector: Getting out of the woods

Global Research

16 July 2026ab

Asia Bicycle Sector Equities

AsiaGetting out of the woods

Industrial Goods & Services

Ally Chen

Turning positive on better-than-expected sales in Europe and China Analyst

We are turning constructive on the bicycle sector, with key indicators revealing solid ally.chen@ubs.com

purchasing intentions in Europe, along with sell-through that has been better than +886-2-8722 7347

feared in China, driven by new product launches and demand for basic pedal bikes. Megan Li

Giant's monthly sales in Europe and China turned to YoY growth during Q226. Also, Associate Analyst

Merida's monthly sales turned to YoY growth in May 2026. Additionally, the latest megan.li@ubs.com

Global Bicycle Purchasing Index (GBPI) survey, released in June, indicates bike +886-2-8722 7393

distributors are increasing procurement, affirming a cyclical recovery for Giant, Merida

and Shimano in 2027, in our view. We think the market is less confident about such a

recovery and underestimates the margin recovery magnitude from operating leverage

(>9-50% fixed COGS/opex). We estimate 2027 earnings growth of 310%/26%/32%

for Giant/Shimano/Merida. Our estimates are 5-25% above consensus. We believe

strong earnings growth in 2027 will raise valuations from the current troughs to

average. We upgrade our ratings on Shimano, Giant and Merida to Buy from Neutral.

We expect upcoming earnings results and monthly sales to be positive share price

catalysts.

Eurobike 2026 highlights: Industry trending better; e-bike product revolution

The GBPI survey was started in 2025 and aims to provide industry-leading indicators

based on order and procurement change analysis. The latest survey results in June