Greater China Banks Daily: Jun credit data: new RMB loans and TSF weaker than expected; China’s Q2 GDP growth slowed to 4.3% with supply-demand imbalances

Research evidence excerpt

Greater China Banks Daily: Jun credit data: new RMB loans and TSF weaker than expected; China’s Q2 GDP growth slowed to 4.3% with supply-demand imbalances

Global Research

16 July 2026ab

Greater China Banks Daily Equities

ChinaJun credit data: new RMB loans and TSF weaker

than expected; China's Q2 GDP growth slowed Banks

to 4.3% with supply-demand imbalances MayAnalystYan

may.yan@ubs.com

+852-2971 7157

Jun credit data: new RMB loans and TSF weaker than expected Alex Ye

Analyst

Jun credit data remained soft and fell short of market expectations. New RMB loans S1460522090005

totaled Rmb1.6trn, Rmb630bn lower YoY and below the consensus estimate of alex.ye@ubs.com

Rmb1.9trn. The weakness was broad-based versus last year, with lower readings across +86 755 2215 8858

both household and corporate loans and across tenors. On a positive note, these

Catherine Yang, CFA

categories returned to positive prints after net contractions in previous months. As Analyst

expected, discounted bill financing stayed strong, though it declined MoM on S1460526010003

seasonality. New TSF came in at Rmb3.4trn, Rmb861bn lower YoY and slightly below catherine-za.yang@ubs.com

the market estimate of Rmb3.5trn. Corporate bond financing was the key support, +86-755-2215 8860

while RMB loans and special local government bond issuance were both weaker than Helen Li, CFA

last Jun. Overall, June loan growth moderated to 5.3% YoY (5.5% in May) and TSF Analyst

growth eased to 7.4% (7.7% in May). Driven by seasonal factors, household deposits helen-za.li@ubs.com

rose Rmb1.95trn, while NBFI deposits dropped Rmb990bn. In H126, household deposits +852-2971 6066

increased Rmb7.58trn, below last year’s Rmb10.8trn, likely suggesting some deposit

migration into the equity market or other financial products.