Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing: Raising capex and US expansion plans to strengthen supply leadership

Research evidence excerpt

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing: Raising capex and US expansion plans to strengthen supply leadership

int, in line with our preview and recent market expectations. We

12/26E 99.84 108.96 9 100.23

raise 2026E sales growth (in US$) from 37% to 41%, and forecast 40%/31% growth in

12/27E 139.27 149.14 7 130.32

2027/28 (vs. consensus of 30%/24% pre earnings), underpinned by TSMC's higher

12/28E 182.04 198.23 9 165.91

capex and larger addressable Cloud AI market.

Sunny Lin

We expect a steadier GM trend in H226E and 2027E Analyst

sunny.lin@ubs.comQ2 gross margin came in at 67.7%, at the high end of guidance but likely slightly below

+886-2-8722 7346

the elevated expectations into earnings. Q3 gross margin is guided at 65.0-67.0%,

pressured by a 3-4% headwind from the sharp initial 2nm ramp. We reiterate that GM's Randy Abrams

trajectory in upcoming quarters is the key, which should hold up through H226-27E due Analyst

randy.abrams@ubs.com

to improving scale, product mix and mild price rises from Q127, in our view, to offset the

+886-2-8722 7338

N2 dilution, overseas expansion and cost inflation. We forecast TSMC to hike leading

edge prices 5-10% and mature nodes c5% in early 2027, and forecast gross margin at Nicolas Gaudois

67.1% in H226 and 67.5% in 2027. Analyst

nicolas.gaudois@ubs.com

+65-6495 5148

Valuation: reiterate Buy rating, raise target to NT$3,650 from NT$3,400

We raise 2026/27/28E EPS 9%/7%/9% and our PT to NT$3,650, based on 21x 2027-

28E PE supported by a 25% 2027-30E earnings CAGR. With a wider valuation gap

between TSMC (16.6x 2027E PE) and other AI-related stocks (ASE: 23.3x; Aspeed:

41.8x), we expect TSMC shares to perform steadily post this earnings, as the higher

capex would support a sustained strong sales growth outlook. YTD, TSMC has rallied

59% vs.