Green Plains Inc: Raise PT to $20 Amidst Strong Earnings Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

Green Plains Inc: Raise PT to $20 Amidst Strong Earnings Outlook

Global Research

16 July 2026ab

Green Plains Inc Equities

United StatesRaise PT to $20 Amidst Strong Earnings Outlook

Industrial, Diversified

12-month rating Neutral *

Adjusting Estimates

We raise our estimates for GPRE ahead of 2Q earnings. We raise our 2Q EBITDA to 12m price target US$20.00

$93M (from $36M) and our 2026E EBITDA to $283M (from $149M). For 2Q, we Prior : US$12.00

estimate the Ethanol Production segment EBITDA of $91M and Agribusiness/Energy

Price (16 Jul 2026) US$17.21

Services EBITDA of $1.5M. We are raising estimates as 1) Advantage Nebraska has been

fully operational and the company sees potential expansion opportunities there, as RIC: GPRE.O BBG: GPRE US

compression assets were built in mind of potentially expanding, 2) GPRE expects new

Trading data and key metrics

capacities to come out due to production coming in above nameplate capacities, and 3)

52-wk range US$18.25-7.31

GPRE has been working to pay off debt-existing businesses that weren't delivering

enough returns by selling off underperforming facilities. We remain Neutral as we see Market cap. US$1.21b

limited upside in GPRE at this point of time. In the renewable space, we see more upside Shares o/s 70.0m (COM)

in renewable diesel (DAR) and RD feedstock providers (BG, ADM) than GPRE (based on Free float 95%

our revised PT). Our estimates for 2026 / 2027 / 2028 are in-line with Buy side Avg. daily volume ('000) 1,458

expectations. Avg. daily value (m) US$23.3

Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$0.89b

Macro Tailwinds P/BV (12/26E) 1.3x

Investor capital has shifted toward key areas of the clean-fuels complex, such as Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 0.8x

renewable diesel and ethanol. Ethanol margins continue to be strong, and we expect