U.S. Hardlines Retail: Lasser’s Look at June 2026 U.S. Census Bureau Retail Sales

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Hardlines Retail: Lasser’s Look at June 2026 U.S. Census Bureau Retail Sales

Global Research

16 July 2026ab

U.S. Hardlines Retail Equities

AmericasLasser’s Look at June 2026 U.S. Census Bureau

Retail Sales Retailers, Broadline

Michael Lasser

Analyst

michael.lasser@ubs.com

Overall retail sales (unadjusted) increased by 8.4% YoY in June (5.7% in May) +1-212-713 2440

Retail sales on a year-over-year basis increased by 8.4% in June, versus 5.7% in May and Mark Carden

4.6% in April. On a CAGR basis since 2019, trends accelerated to 6.3% in June from Analyst

5.9% in May. Across subsectors, sporting goods (17.8%), consumer electronics mark.carden@ubs.com

(10.5%), and home improvement (6.9%) had the strongest performance. Also, +1-212-713 3218

ecommerce sales grew 18.0% in June, implying that in-store sales grew 6.5%. We think Dan Silverstein

part of the strength was driven by summer sales events from key retailers like WMT, TGT Analyst

and others were in June this year versus July last year. Looking ahead, we expect daniel.silverstein@ubs.com

consumer spending to become increasingly episodic and event-driven in the coming +1-212-713 2459

months. The average gasoline per gallon price in June was -9% lower than in May and Sachin Verma

gasoline spend accounted for 8.3% of total retail sales in June vs. 8.6% in May. That Associate Analyst

said, the recent escalation in the Middle East has heightened uncertainty around energy sachin.verma@ubs.com

markets and consumer sentiment, with higher fuel costs likely again diverting spending +1-212-713 3492

away from discretionary categories. Mathew Rothway

CE, Home Improvement and Home Furnishings sales grew in June mathew.rothway@ubs.com

Home Improvement (NAICS 444) increased 6.9% YoY in Jun (1.4% in May), w. the +1-212-713 5000