ManpowerGroup Inc Staffing Recovery Finally Taking Shape?

Research evidence excerpt

ManpowerGroup Inc Staffing Recovery Finally Taking Shape?

would reason that there could be more upside than downside to the Q3 guide. We

raise our Q3 organic growth outlook to +6% from +3%.

Early cycle recovery? The clearly improving demand will likely spur questions

regarding whether this is the beginning of an early-cycle recovery in staffing. This is

a debated topic (see below), but accelerating growth is difficult to argue with.

Some of the features of the recovery thus far are very indicative of early-cycle traits,

including 1) U.S. leading a global recovery, 2) Manpower leading Experis, and 3)

staffing leading permanent hiring (perm).

Some Lingering Topics

Gross margin stable but at low levels. Gross margin declined 80bps yoy in Q2

to 16.1%, primarily impacted by enterprise mix. Gross margin seems to find some

support in the low-16% range, and Q3 guide (15.9-16.1%) implies the same.

However, these margin levels are generally lower than the last cycle and only mildly

above 2020 COVID levels (15.7%). We think perm and Experis mix should drive

gross margins higher, but some concerns on longer-term margin erosion remain.

Offsetting, MAN has been managing SG&A well, and this is now paying off as

revenue growth is starting to accelerate.

AI narrative remains. MAN is in the AI headwind ("Bucket 4") categorization

within our Business Services AI framework, which argues that investors perceive

AI to be a headwind to the company. However, we've also argued that the primary

way to break out of Bucket 4 is to post clearly improving key metrics. In the case of

MAN and organic growth, while we expect AI to remain a key topic of discussion,

continued accelerating growth (even in a cyclical recovery) could potentially

diminish AI concerns over time.

Raising 2026/2027 Estimates