Australia | Refining & Marketing: Weekly Refining & Marketing Margin

Research evidence excerpt

Australia | Refining & Marketing: Weekly Refining & Marketing Margin

Australia | Refining & Marketing EquityJulyResearch17, 2026

Figure 3 - ALD & VEA PE ratioWeekly Refining & Marketing Margin

20x

VEA ALD

Refining margins improved this week and remains well above historical 18x16x

14x

12xlevels. We expect crude and product supply normalisation to take some

10x

time and refining margins to remain above pre-conflict levels. Russia 8x6x

banning diesel exports and continued volatility in the Middle East should Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26

.be supportive alongside rebuilding refined product inventories which have Source: Factset. NB: 12mth fwd

been depleted. Gasoline retail margin weakness partly offset by strength in

diesel in 2Q. Figure 4 - Aus Refining SWAM - US$/bbl by qtr

38.2

31.4 34.1 30.8 32.6 31.4 35.3 31.2 33.3 33.3 29.2 27.0 27.2 24.2 25.3 24.6

A weekly summary of refining & marketing margins across Australia & NZ - We monitor

a Singapore Weighted Average Margin (SWAM), which we construct based on a typical

Australian refiner product slate, as well as a published Minas211 benchmark. Both metrics

have been highly correlated with ALD and VEA refining margins over time (refer to Appendix 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26*

for correlation). We also show individual product cracks and crude premia, as well as product .

Source: Jefferies analysis. NB: Based on a fixed pre-COVID

inventory. In addition, we monitor weekly Australian retail margin data from AIP, and NZ product slate. 3Q26 is period to date

importer margins from Government data.

Refining margins averaged US$37/bbl this week - Minas211 averaged US$37.32/bbl this