First Read PayPal Holdings Inc: Stripe and Advent Reportedly Offer to Acquire PayPal

Research evidence excerpt

First Read PayPal Holdings Inc: Stripe and Advent Reportedly Offer to Acquire PayPal

internet &

UBS Cons.

financial services infrastructure provider and global two-sided network (consumers

Q1 1.34 1.34

& merchants) that is unmatched in scale and consumer/merchant/platform

Q2E 1.27 1.28

relationships. Organically, Stripe has already started to build a two-sided global network

Q3E 1.29 1.34

with Stripe Link, which has grown to ~300mm+ users as of last disclosure. PayPal Q4E 1.33 1.36

Branded Checkout, the crown jewel of PayPal, makes up ~60% of total company gross 12/26E 5.24 5.33

profit, ~$530b 2025 TPV (~60% of this outside the US, UBSe), and would bring 12/27E 5.67 5.77

~439mm active accounts (as of Q1 2026, inclusive of both consumers and merchants), 12/28E 6.26 6.24

including ~45% of those outside the US. Stripe could further grow the combined two-

sided network through PayPal's trusted global brand via improved modernization and Timothy E. Chiodo, CFA

Analyst

distribution. On modernization, Stripe talent could support the modernization of PayPal

timothy.chiodo@ubs.com

Branded Checkout and Stripe could potentially support any required investment better +1-415-352 4500

than PayPal is able to do as a stand-alone public company (part of this investment could

come in the form of either reduced take rates and/or compensating merchants for Chris Zhang, CFA

migrating to more modern integrations that PayPal offers). On distribution, Stripe would

chris.zhang@ubs.com

be able to more easily distribute Branded Checkout to SMBs and enterprises that work +1-212-713 4911

with directly with Stripe and/or via SaaS platforms that work with Stripe Connect.

Pat Ennis, CFAAdditionally, Venmo's scale (~67mm monthly active users) and affluent consumer base

Associate Analyst