Axia Energia: 2Q26 Preview - The Earnings Debate Shifts Below EBITDA

Research evidence excerpt

Axia Energia: 2Q26 Preview - The Earnings Debate Shifts Below EBITDA

Global Research

14 July 2026ab

Axia Energia Equities

Brazil2Q26 Preview - The Earnings Debate Shifts

Below EBITDA Electric Utilities

12-month rating Buy

12m price target R$76.00Bottom Line

We expect Axia to report 2Q26 adjusted EBITDA of ~R$6.5bn and adjusted net

income of ~R$1.9bn. EBITDA is only 4.5% below consensus, but net income is 27.3% Price (14 Jul 2026) R$52.63

below consensus after assuming financial expenses remain near 1Q26 levels at ~R RIC: AXIA3.SA BBG: AXIA3 BZ

$3.1bn. The market debate is no longer just merchant normalization; it is whether

consensus underestimates the impact of submarket dispersion and whether a Trading data and key metrics

seasonally weaker 2Q could lead investors to draw excessively pessimistic 52-wk range R$73.50-40.70

conclusions about Axia's medium-term dividend-paying capacity. Market cap. R$155b/US$30.6b

Shares o/s 2,943m (PNB)

Figure 1: Our forecasts vs consensus Free float 87%

Our forec asts vs c onsensus Avg.Avg. dailydaily volumevalue (m)('000) R$3025,471

Common s/h equity (12/26E) R$110b

P/BV (12/26E) 1.4x

Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 3.3x

EPS (UBS, diluted) (BRL)

Source: UBS estimates. EBITDA with Equity Income. Bloomberg.

UBS Cons.

12/26E 4.44 4.39

Key Debate: Is consensus still overestimating Axia’s net income by assuming either 12/27E 5.92 5.84

better financial expenses or stronger below-EBITDA contribution? 12/28E 4.36 6.14

Giuliano AjejeInvestment View

Analyst

In our view, Axia's earnings remain highly sensitive to spot power prices and giuliano.ajeje@ubs.com

merchant monetization, which means quarterly results can fluctuate materially +55-11-2767 6371

depending on hydrology, seasonal allocation, and the company's commercial

Henrique Simoes

position.