Dunelm: Attractive risk/reward given quality, Reit Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Dunelm: Attractive risk/reward given quality, Reit Buy

Global Research

16 July 2026ab

Dunelm Equities

United KingdomAttractive risk/reward given quality, Reit Buy

Retailers, Specialty

12-month rating Buy

Q4 Topline acceleration and valuation make risk/reward attractive, remain Buy

DNLM's sequential acceleration in sales growth in Q4 at +2.9% vs Q3 on low 12m price target 1,250p

expectations following macro concerns was likely the reason shares were strong +5% Prior : 1,310p

despite an FY26e PBT expected in line with company Cons. (£210m). The likely debate

Price (16 Jul 2026) 861p

from here is can DNLM achieve c.3% FY27e Cons. PBT growth. In our view this remains

quite realistic given DNLM continues to outperform the market based on Barclaycard RIC: DNLM.L BBG: DNLM LN

data on Furniture stores in Q4 by 1.5ppts giving confidence in DNLM's ability to continue

Trading data and key metrics

to sustain the Q4 exit into next year. This may also see potential further support from

52-wk range 1,241p-715

new stores following some openings pushed into FY27e. The -42bps decline in H2 gross

margin despite fx tailwinds and the £7m benefit from insurance income in opex raises Market cap. £1.74b/US$2.34b

some questions on the expectation of flat PBT margin expectations in Cons in a Shares o/s 202m (ORD)

potentially inflationary environment. We take comfort in DNLM's promotional discipline Free float 100%

protecting gross margin and cost savings program keeping opex under control, with PBT Avg. daily volume ('000) 453

margin expectations still being below the FY25 peak. Therefore, at c.10.5x P/E (FY27e) Avg. daily value (m) £3.5

valuation is the lowest its been since 2019 (1 std deviation below 20y avg), for what has Common s/h equity (06/26E) £0.14b