Lonza Group AG: Preview H126: Front-end loaded delivery

Research evidence excerpt

Lonza Group AG: Preview H126: Front-end loaded delivery

17.67

bioconjucation facilities in Visp hence hit capacity constraints (note recent company 12/27E 20.85 21.12

announcements for payload-linker capacity expansion in Visp). In addition, the Vacaville 12/28E 23.60 24.68

site will go into maintenance shutdown in H2 which did not occur in H225. While the

latter effect has not been quantified, we estimate this could be c.CHF100m - albeit Patrick Rafaisz, CFA, FRM

offset by ongoing asset ramps in Visp. Overall, we think organic growth will be more in Analyst

patrick.rafaisz@ubs.com

the MSD territory (UBSe 5.2%) and the margin lower h/h (UBSe 31.5% or -120bps y/y).

+41-44-239 90 66

A word on capital allocation Tanya Hansalik

Analyst

We see no reason to expect any changes in capital allocation messaging. Management tanya.hansalik@ubs.com

has indicated that M&A is on a par with organic growth investments on its priority list. +41-44-239-2053

We understand some investors may like to see the company replace the outgoing

Matthew Weston, PhD

EPS from the CHI disposal with targeted acquisitions. We continue to think that

potential areas of interest for Lonza could include adding a Small Molecules bricks and matthew.weston@ubs.com

mortar footprint in the US or entering new modalities such as oligos (link, link). But with +44-20-7567 4055

the closing of the CHI divestment - and hence the receipt of CHF1.7bn of upfront

proceeds - still pending, we would not expect any material news next week.

Valuation: Trading in line with Western CDMO peers

At ~21x FY26E EV/EBITDA Lonza trades in line with Western CDMO peers whereas we

believe a premium would be deserved for its long track record in delivering growth and

favourable asset mix. Our PT is DCF-based (7.0% WACC, 2.5% t-growth).