Airlines & Aerospace Plane spotting - China sees sequential capacity growth improvement y/y in early-mid July

Research evidence excerpt

Airlines & Aerospace Plane spotting - China sees sequential capacity growth improvement y/y in early-mid July

Powered by Lab Global16 JulyResearch2026ab Evidence UBS YES

Airlines & Aerospace Equities

GlobalPlane spotting - China sees sequential capacity

growth improvement y/y in early-mid July Airlines

Jarrod Castle, CFA

Analyst

jarrod.castle@ubs.com

UBS Evidence Lab Global Airline Traffic Monitor +44-20-7568 8883

We use data from the UBS Evidence Lab Global Airline Traffic Monitor (> Access dataset). Amal Patel

This monthly monitor aims to aggregate global commercial air traffic data at the flight Analyst

level, with each flight then mapped to an airline operator, country/region of take-off and amal.patel@ubs.com

operation, engine type, aircraft manufacturer and body type. For each flight, a measure +44-20-7568 3973

of passenger-carrying capacity is calculated, based on available seat kilometres (ASK). Ivar Billfalk-Kelly

We think the data allows us to estimate the extent of the global airline traffic recovery Analyst

before traffic is announced or estimated, which is useful for predicting revenues. The ivar.billfalk-kelly@ubs.com

time series began in January 2018 and extends to the12th July 2026. +44-20-7568 3240

Cristian Nedelcu, CFA

Europe/US avg. capacity growth broadly unchanged whilst China sees Analyst

sequential improvement cristian.nedelcu@ubs.com

Analysing avg. capacity data for the first two weeks of July we note: +44-20-7568 4375

Ian Douglas-Pennant

Europe avg. capacity growth of -1% (vs. -2% y/y in June) with Italy +6% y/y (vs.

+5% y/y in June), Spain +4% y/y (vs. 4% y/y in June), Germany -2% y/y (vs. -5% ian.douglas-pennant@ubs.com

y/y in June), France -2% y/y (vs. -1% y/y in June) and UK -1% (vs. -2% y/y in June). +44-20-7568 0936

China avg.